Has Russia lost Azerbaijan? For decades, the two countries have managed a cautious, calculated relationship built on history, geography, economic ties, and even necessity. But that dynamic appears to be collapsing. A series of events has pushed what was once a pragmatic partnership into open confrontation. What started as quiet tension has now escalated into a full-blown diplomatic crisis with potentially serious consequences not just for the South Caucasus but for broader regional and international security. So, how did the relationship evolve? What went wrong? And is there any way to repair the damage? Hello and welcome. I'm James Ker-Lindsay, and here I take an informed look at international relations, conflict and security. In the world of diplomacy, relationships between states can deteriorate for many reasons. Sometimes it's slow and subtle, resulting from shifts in strategic interests or changes in domestic politics. At other times, it's sudden. A single instant or provocation can set off a chain reaction. More often, though, it's a combination of both. A gradual erosion of trust that's eventually tipped over the edge by a triggering event. And when that happens, even long-standing partnerships can unravel quickly. The recent breakdown between Russia and Azerbaijan is a perfect example of how fragile international relationships can be, even when they appear stable on the surface. For many years, the two neighbors maintain pragmatic, if occasionally uneasy, ties. But since late 2024, relations have taken a dramatic turn for the worse. What had once been a careful balancing act has collapsed into mistrust, retaliation, and escalating confrontation, and the implications could be far-reaching. Lying in the South Caucasus, the Republic of Azerbaijan is one of 14 countries that neighbour the Russian Federation. Altogether, the countries share a 340 km or 210-mile land border as well as a maritime boundary in the Caspian Sea. In terms of size and population, Russia dwarfs Azerbaijan, standing at 17.1 million km or 6.6 million square miles and 140 million inhabitants to Azerbaijan's 87,000 km or 33,000 miles and a population of 10 million. To understand the current tensions, we need to step back and explore the broader context. How the Russia-Azerbaijan relationship emerged and evolved over time. Our story begins in the 19th century when what is now Azerbaijan was part of Persia. In the early 1800s, it was invaded and annexed by Imperial Russia. After a brief period of independence following the First World War a century later, Azerbaijan was then incorporated into the Soviet Union becoming the Azerbaijani Soviet Socialist Republic. This lasted until 1991. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, it regained its independence becoming a member of the United Nations as the Republic of Azerbaijan. At first, Azerbaijan maintained its ties with Moscow. In addition to joining the Commonwealth of Independent States, the CIS, a loose grouping of former Soviet republics, it also signed the Collective Security Treaty, becoming part of a Russia-led military pact. However, relations were soon strained by conflict. As the Soviet Union dissolved, the Nagorno-Karabakh region, a predominantly Armenian enclave within Azerbaijan, declared independence, supported by neighbouring Armenia. The subsequent war resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and saw Armenia occupy a fifth of Azerbaijani territory. Crucially, Azerbaijan accused Russia of supporting Armenia both politically and militarily. As a result, Baku began looking west. In 1994, it joined NATO's Partnership for Peace program alongside several other Soviet republics, including Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, and even Russia itself. Five years later, in 1999, Azerbaijan, along with Georgia and Uzbekistan, chose not to renew its membership of the Collective Security Treaty. Unlike countries that went on to join the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, the CSTO, which replaced the treaty, Azerbaijan charted a different course. It now began building closer ties with NATO, including by contributing troops to NATO missions in Kosovo and Afghanistan. Then in 2005, it signed an individual partnership action plan with NATO. This formed the basis for defence reform and closer cooperation. But all the while, despite moving closer to NATO, Azerbaijan nevertheless pursued a policy of strategic balancing. While deepening its ties with the West, it couldn't afford to alienate Moscow entirely. Russia remained a central player in efforts to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Additionally, many Azerbaijanis lived and worked in Russia, sending back remittances that were vital for families at home. In short, Azerbaijan walked a careful line, seeking to diversify its partnerships without provoking its powerful northern neighbour. This balancing approach was formalised in 2011 when Azerbaijan joined the Non-Aligned Movement. To observers, it was a clear signal that Baku intended to maintain strategic independence rather than fully aligning with any one bloc. Indeed, in the years that followed, Azerbaijan became a major player in the group, holding the chair of the NAM from 2019 to 2023. Despite occasional friction between the two countries, the overall relationship between Russia and Azerbaijan remained relatively stable. That was until the outbreak of the second Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020. In September that year, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive to retake territory held by Armenian forces since the early 1990s. In the end, the conflict lasted just 6 weeks and ended in a decisive Azabaijani victory, aided in no small part by Turkey, which supplied advanced military technology and operational support. Crucially, though, Russia, despite its alliance with Armenia through the CSTO, chose not to intervene militarily. Instead, in what was widely seen as a calculated move by the Kremlin, it brokered a ceasefire agreement which included the deployment of Russian peacekeepers to the region. This would be a hugely important decision. By not backing Armenia too strongly, Russia kept a foot in both camps, thereby preserving its ties with Azerbaijan. As a result, in the years that followed, the two autocratic presidents, Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev, appeared to develop a cordial, even cooperative personal relationship. However, things weren't quite as they seemed. Behind the scenes, the tide was turning. I hope you're finding this helpful. If so, please give it a like and don't forget to subscribe if you haven't already. Thanks. And now, back to the video. In September 2023, Azerbaijani forces swept past Russian peacekeepers and retook control of the remaining Armenian-held parts of Nagorno-Karabakh. Although Russia did nothing to stop them, from Baku's perspective, this marked the end of the conflict on their terms and with little thanks to Moscow. Gratitude instead went to Turkey, whose support had been crucial. The two countries which had long shared close cultural, economic and political ties and had already signed a military cooperation agreement in 2021 now formed a de facto military alliance. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan was quietly edging closer to the west in other ways. While Baku remained cautious in its statements about Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it increased humanitarian aid to Kyiv, signalling growing support. At the same time, Azerbaijan deepened its ties with Israel, which had also helped it retake Nagorno-Karabakh. But yet, even as these shifts unfolded, Baku was careful not to alienate Russia openly. For instance, in August 2024, Aliyev even signalled interest in joining the BRICS, a Russia- and China-led alternative to the West. To observers, the message appeared clear. Azerbaijan still valued its relationship with Moscow. But then came the breaking point. In December 2024, an Azerbaijani passenger plane crashed in Kazakhstan, reportedly after being shot down by a Russian missile fired as it flew over southern Russia. But while President Putin issued a formal apology, the Kremlin refused to take responsibility or offer compensation. Since then, there's been a dramatic deterioration in ties. In June 2025, Russian police in Yakatarinberg detained dozens of ethnic Azerbaijanis, with at least two then dying in custody. Condemning the arrests as ethnically motivated violence, Baku now cancelled a number of scheduled bilateral meetings. Days later, Azerbaijani authorities raided the offices of Sputnik Azerbaijan, a Russian media outlet and arrested several Russian nationals on criminal charges, including cybercrime and drug trafficking. At this stage, relations between Baku and Moscow have collapsed. The trust that had sustained years of pragmatic cooperation is gone. Azerbaijan now sees Russia as a hostile and unreliable actor. Meanwhile, Russia, for its part, views Azerbaijan's retaliatory actions as an affront to its authority and regional influence. What had once been a careful balancing act between East and West has now unravelled into open confrontation and mutual suspicion. So, where does this leave us at this stage? The critical question is whether this rupture is permanent or if there's still a path back to cooperation. On the one hand, Azerbaijan has long pursued a pragmatic foreign policy that's balanced the needs and interests of various actors. Notwithstanding recent strains with Moscow as well as with Tehran, Baku has traditionally pursued working relationships with Russia, the West, Turkey, and Iran, never fully aligning with one side. In this sense, despite the current hostility, Baku may eventually find it useful to reestablish limited cooperation with Moscow. On the other hand, this may well be the beginning of a more fundamental strategic realignment if Russia continues to refuse to accept full responsibility for the downing of the aircraft or if it acts in ways that reinforce a perception of imperial arrogance and disregard for Azerbaijani sovereignty. The damage may well become irreparable. In that case, Azerbaijan may continue to deepen its ties with Turkey, NATO, and the United States moving further out of Moscow's orbit. Indeed, with Aliyev and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seemingly enjoying a genuinely close relationship, there's growing talk that Turkey may even establish a military base in Azerbaijan. But for now, the situation between Russia and Azerbaijan is deeply strained. But it's not necessarily beyond repair. What happens next will depend on several factors. Political will, public sentiment in both countries, and broader developments across the South Caucuses and the post-Soviet space. Will Putin reach out to Aliyev, or will Aliyev adopt a pragmatic stance moving forward? Ultimately, if this doesn't happen, the real question then becomes one of Azerbaijan's overall strategic direction. Will it continue to follow the policy of non-alignment squeezed between Russia and its close partner Iran? Or will it consider a far more radical move and instead lean fully towards the West, perhaps even considering a bid for NATO membership? While this seems unlikely to occur for various reasons, not least of all Azerbaijan's poor internal record on democracy and human rights, we're living in fast-moving and unpredictable times. In this regard, what happens next between Baku and Moscow could have far-reaching effects. I hope you found that helpful. If so, here are some more videos that you might like. Thanks so much for watching and see you in the next.