Lecture Notes: Donald Trump's Reelection and Approval Ratings

Overview of Trump's Reelection

• Donald Trump was reelected to the White House for a second term in November.
• Became the first US president since 1892 to be elected to a non-consecutive second term.
• First Republican president to achieve this.

Initial Popularity

• Came into office with a positive net approval rating.
• Approval ratings were better than in his first term.

Decline in Popularity

• Recent polls suggest Trump 2.0 is losing support, less popular than Trump 1.0.
• YUGV Poll: 41% approval, 54% disapproval (net -13), especially low among young voters.
• Pew Poll: Net approval rating of -19.
• Fox News Poll: Net approval of -11, down 9 points from last month.

Economic Approval Ratings

• Trump 2.0 polling worse on the economy than Trump 1.0.
• Economist/YUGV Poll: Net economic approval of -12, 24-point drop since January.
• 52% of Americans believe the US economy is worsening under Trump 2.0.

Economic Policies and Impact

• Trump's global tariffs and federal spending cuts have been disruptive.
• Tariffs likely to increase short-term prices.
• IMF predicts a 40% chance of recession and lowered US growth forecast from 2.7% to 1.8%.
• S&P 500 down 10% from January peak.

Public Opinion on Tariffs

• 48% think tariffs are harmful to the US economy, 38% think they are helpful.
• 86% of Democrats vs. 14% of Republicans view tariffs as harmful.

Approval on Trade, Inflation, and Immigration

• Trade and inflation approval: -15 and -18 respectively.
• Immigration: Initially positive, now -1 to -5.
• Specific policies, like deportation without due process, are unpopular.

Media Reporting and Bias

• Reporting from over 72 sources, 29% left-leaning, 31% right-leaning.
• Left-leaning outlets use dramatic language; right-leaning use softer terms.

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Conclusion

• Trump faces declining popularity and approval ratings.
• Economic policies are a major factor in declining support.
• Media portrayal varies by political leanings, highlighting polarization.

These notes summarize the key points from the lecture on Donald Trump's reelection and approval ratings. The focus was on his initial popularity, subsequent decline, especially concerning economic policies, and the media's role in shaping public perception.