Overview
This episode covers heightened stock market volatility ahead of key events, notably the Jackson Hole Symposium, and analyzes recent trends such as rising bankruptcies and notable stock movements. The hosts discuss market levels, trading strategies, and highlight significant trades and upcoming market catalysts.
Market Volatility & Jackson Hole Symposium
- Market opened with significant fear, with SPY dropping sharply before recovering mid-day.
- Upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium runs Thursday to Saturday; Powell speaks Friday at 10 a.m. ET.
- Past years’ Jackson Hole events have triggered both market rallies and declines, especially tied to Powell’s remarks.
- Median market return during Jackson Hole week is 0.8%, but historical moves have been volatile.
- Market sentiment resembles 2022, with concerns that Powell may signal prolonged high interest rates.
Federal Reserve & Economic Data
- FOMC minutes reveal a divided Fed, with concerns over both inflation and employment.
- Probability of a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting has decreased, with a 19% chance of a pause.
- Some analysts warn of potential market declines between 7-15%.
Bankruptcy & Employment Trends
- 446 large bankruptcy filings in 2025 so far, exceeding 2020 pandemic levels and highest since 2010.
- July saw 71 bankruptcies, highest single month since July 2020.
- Unemployment rates for 20-24 year-old graduates with some college/associate degrees have risen to 8.1%, highest since the pandemic and 2008.
Key Stocks & Market Setups
- Palantir experienced significant volatility, dropping 6.4% intraday but recovering; resistance noted around $160-161.
- Robin Hood remains on bearish watch if it falls below $10.26; significant buying observed.
- Caterpillar is monitored for a double top breakout near $422; seen as a value stock.
- AEM (gold miner) is on bullish radar, nearing $137.80 highs; risk if it falls below $130.15.
- Google’s critical resistance is $200; bearish if it stays below this level.
Momentum Plays for Tomorrow
- HIMS: Watch for upside if price breaks above $44 resistance.
- WULF: Upside potential if it breaks intraday highs near $9.40.
- CCJ: Downside continuation if price falls below $69.
Significant Trades & Earnings
- A $4.5M call debit spread opened on GLD (gold ETF), targeting move above $315 by September 12, 2025.
- Walmart reports earnings tomorrow before market open, providing consumer spending insights.
Recommendations / Advice
- Prioritize disciplined and long-term trading strategies.
- Watch key technical levels and be aware of heightened volatility surrounding major events.
- Monitor economic indicators and Fed communications for guidance on market direction.
Action Items
- Tomorrow – Team: Monitor SPY price action around 639 and 641.50 resistance levels.
- Tomorrow – Team: Track Jackson Hole Symposium updates, especially Powell's Friday speech.
- Tomorrow – All traders: Watch Walmart earnings pre-market for trends in consumer spending.
- TBD – Individual traders: Keep HIMS, WULF, CCJ, Palantir, Robin Hood, Caterpillar, AEM, and Google on active watch for technical breakouts or breakdowns.