What is going on everyone? The stock market is going crazy and this week's biggest events haven't even started yet. We have a great episode today as we analyze the patterns the market has been following with recent years Jackson Hole events plus what's actually happening this time around. And we also have new data showing bankruptcy surging, especially last month in July, which actually had the highest single month total since July of 2020. So, and you already know that we're also going to be checking out the hottest stocks like Palanteer and analyzing them as well. Stick with us today. The market is getting exciting. [Music] It definitely is, Mike. And today, the overall market had a lot of fear right at market open. As we can see, the spy ended up tanking down for the first 30 minutes to one hour of trading. But as the day went on, the spy ended up recovering back up. There is a lot of volatility and a lot of craziness. And with that end of day recovery, I'm very worried that a lot of traders are going to get faked out over the next couple of trading days. As we know, the Jackson Hole Symposium is starting tomorrow on Thursday. This runs through Saturday, and Paul will actually be speaking at the event on Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern time. But whenever we talk about Jackson Hole, Mike, you know, it's always good to go back and look at what's happened in the past. At at the 2022 event, we can see that whenever Powell spoke, the market ended up tanking down. there was a massive red candle that ended up coming into play as he spoke there. The first day was actually green, but as the event went on, uh obviously when Powell spoke, things definitely changed. We can go look at 2023. This was a different scenario. Firstly, we saw a down day, then the market recovered slightly. In 2024, again, the same thing. We saw a down day on the first day, then the market recovered slightly. So, over the past three years with the Jackson Hole, there's been a little bit of a difference. Now, everybody's wondering like, okay, what is going to be going on this time, right? And if we look at the stats for Jackson Hole, the median is 0.8%. At least during the uh the week of the Jackson Hole Symposium. So, I don't think that that's necessarily the best, especially considering that some of these moves are kind of crazy, like the one in 2022 where Powell was talking about keeping interest rates higher for longer. Now, he could try to dodge interest rate questions at this, but I don't think he's going to be able to given the current climate in the market. Yeah. So, there's so many things to say here. Like you said, when you have a median return of8%, it shows that on average, you know, the market increases during these events. But what does that mean when you look at the actual distribution of the data? Like we can see here, some years are really great where some years are pretty bad. And what concerns me heading into this year is that we are kind of in a similar sentiment slash environment that we were in in 2022 where Powell is actively thinking about keeping rates higher for longer. As we look at the market right now, we saw a good amount of selling pressure come in over the past week as investors are transitioning into risk off mode. And Tom, like when we look at the market right now, we've been breaking through some like pretty critical supports as well. We definitely have, Mike. And this has actually been pretty concerning. If we go out to like the SPY on an hourly chart, we can see that for the most part over the past few weeks, the SPY has been pretty stuck. It did run up to new all-time highs on Thursday, August 12th, and even made new highs last Friday. But as we can see, you know, for the most part, the SPY has been stuck in a pretty massive range here. And there's been a lot of key levels breaking like the previous all-time high and then of course 639 and 640. As that broke down today, the SPY ended up selling off in a massive way. And around the end of the trading day, the SPY ended up slowing down again right at that very key level of 639. For tomorrow, if we end up ripping above 639, there could be an intraday opportunity back up. But something that I'm really watching for is that previous all-time high again around 64150. Mike, I think that that'll probably be the most important resistance for tomorrow because if we do end up rejecting there, I think that that'll just set the stage for Jerome Powell's speech the next day. And if it ends up being negative, I think that there's a good shot that we could end up falling back down. Now, nonetheless, what Jerome Powell says uh will impact the market no matter what the market does tomorrow. But I think that these levels will be very important to keep in mind. And of course, if we end up breaking above 64,150 here, I do like the 643 and even 644 range overhead where we did see a lot of rejections early on this week. Definitely. And I am happy that the market held strong today. Open was brutal. But the buying pressure that we saw as the day progressed did show that we aren't seeing like everyone just like rush to the exit all at once. At least with the S&P 500. You could make that argument with other stocks, but the S&P 500 is holding up okay for now. And there certainly are some key resistance levels overhead like you pointed out. And I think realistically what's going to drive the next big move is like you said how Powell navigates this Jackson Hole event, especially on Friday when he speaks 30 minutes after open. And what everyone really cares about is, you know, what he has to say tied to the path of rate cuts going forward. In recent years, Powell has used this Jackson Hole Symposium as like a big event to, you know, signal how he views path of rate cuts where last year he actually confirmed that the Fed was about to cut rates for the first time in more than a year after holding the federal funds rate high to get rid of like the post-pandemic wave of inflation. And then this time he can certainly use his speech to signal whether the Fed is ready to resume rate cuts. In that case, Bulls will be pretty happy. But at the same time, uh if he, you know, isn't as uh you could say um eager to cut rates. He can also signal that he's happy to keep uh rates higher for longer. And one thing that I found very interesting today is that when we look at the FOMC minutes report that released at 2 PM Eastern time, it showed that Fed members are definitely uh uh they definitely do see some risks in the economy. Some, you could say more concerned with the inflation side of the uh economic spectrum, you could say, where others more concerned with the employment side. And when you have a divided Fed like this, it makes the question of whether or not we're going to see rate cuts more uncertain. And that's exactly what makes the market more volatile. It really does. And you know, they're trying to judge their overall dual mandate here. And they're like, okay, we have risk to inflation, we have risk to employment, and they don't know which stance to take or which side to go right now. And this is kind of where I think a lot of people are a little worried that Jerome Powell might come out here and talk about keeping rates higher for longer. And that's exactly what he talked about in 2022. And I saw some data today, Mike, on the actual Fed Watch tool where we're actually almost seeing a 20% chance of a pause at the September meeting. I remember after the last few inflation reports and job events, we did actually see this number here for a rate cut jump up to like 94%. But in the past couple weeks, we have seen that regress a little bit and now there's a 19% chance of a pause at the next FOMC meeting. I think that that's something that's been going a little bit under the radar because everybody's been calling for 50 basis point cuts. And we can see that right now the market's not even pricing that in and we have some analysts out here like people at Evercore warning warning that the market's going to drop 7 to 15%. So, I think that this is definitely stirring up some fear and I definitely think that that's what attributed to a lot of that downside pressure at open today and I'm going to keep that in mind for tomorrow, but especially Friday, of course. Yeah, the market's changing quickly and it's going to be an exciting time for traders over these next few weeks because we're already seeing some big moves and again, we haven't even seen like the big events kick off yet. And, you know, adding to all the information you said, uh it's also worth noting how the economy itself is changing. Uh basically in the US we have seen 446 large bankruptcy filings in 2025. This is 12% above the pandemic levels in 2020. And what's more concerning than anything is that the amount of bankruptcies that we are seeing is really starting to accelerate now. In July got even worse where bankruptcy filings for the month increased to 71 which was actually the highest single month total since July 2020. And year to date, again, there have been 446 bankruptcies in the US. Uh, basically that is the highest level since 2010. That is rough, right? And whenever people talk about bankruptcies, I mean, I feel like that it's something that has again been going under the radar a little bit. I know that we've been keeping up with this data quite a bit. So, you know, we've been kind of seeing these numbers rise as the year goes on, but to see that we're above pandemic levels is kind of insane. Honestly, I can't even believe that we're saying that. And we're we're I I know we're not even close to 2008, but obviously the highest since then, at least year to date right now. Maybe things will change as the year goes. But as we can see here, even unemployment rates with 20 to 24 year old graduates is insanely high. It's actually at the highest levels since the pandemic. And then also, it's at 2008 levels as well. And again, this is 20 to 24 year old graduates with some college or associate degrees. So, it's up to 8.1%. And I feel like that this has been rising a lot quicker than the other unemployment rates out there, of course. And it just kind of shows that, you know, the uh the young part of like the uh economy might be feeling it a little bit worse right now. Definitely. And uh as you mentioned, we can certainly see risks with the employment side of things and you could just say with the overall economy and a lot of people use this data and say Jerome Powell, we need to cut these rates. But at the same time, inflation is still not low enough where a lot of people would like to see it at. So it makes Jerome Powell's job hard, especially when all the effects from these tariffs arguably have not set in yet. So yeah, it's going to make for a crazy next few months. And then a lot of people look at all this data and say, "What the hell is going on with the market? I'm uh I'm bearish, right?" And for all those people out there, we have some good news because hedges are still cheap. We can see by looking at the QQQ's implied volatility basically options are cheap right now. So if you are a little bit bearish um again in a relative sense options are cheap when everyone freaks out. Options premiums tend to explode like we could see that giant increase in 2025 this year when everyone was freaking out with the uh April tariff crash. But I guess that's some good news for the bears. And then speaking of bearish movement, Tom, there's no way we couldn't uh, you know, not cover Palunteer today because that has been, I would say, the craziest stock of the week. It definitely has. At least I put it up there. And whenever I see Palunteer in the short term, it's a stock that, you know, I know a lot of people like for the long term, but things are starting to change. You know, we had that Citron short report come out and of course that added in a lot of selling pressure today at open. Palunteer ended up tanking down and pretty much like from the opening price to the low of day fell down 6.4%. Things were getting brutal before that end of day recovery. I do got to say though, I give them a little bit of credit for following the overall market back up and and they ended up closing pretty high. But as I zoom out on like a Palunteer chart, Mike, I'm really watching this overall setup because I love this resistance coming up right around 160 to 161. There's been a couple key re rejections here in the past. And if Palunteer ends up rejecting here over the next couple trading days, like let's say whenever Powell speaks Friday, then I will definitely be watching this one back down. And I'm also watching that low from today because that got actually underneath a lot of key supports from the past right around 150 and even like 148. So if we end up breaking these again, we could end up seeing a lot more selling pressure considering how high Palunteer really is. I know it seems like the short-term price action is is uh you know very bearish, but I would say judging by a lot of charts, there's still a lot of room. Yeah. And like another thing to keep in mind too is that from its all-time high to its low from today, it fell by around 25%. And when we look at Palanteer right now, it was great to see that intraday recovery, but it doesn't give me enough confidence to say that like bulls are like really stepping in strong here because where were they before the stock got knocked off by 25% from its uh all-time highs. So, what I think a lot of this uh price action is is like short covering maybe some people like buying the dip, but I think it's more so just like short covering and just like the stock following the market as a whole. And when you have a stock like Palunteer that is a crazy volatile company and is a very hot name in the market and has a lot of emotion attached to it, um it basically means that, you know, you're going to see giant moves either way. And especially when you have the stock up so much over the past few years, the more pressure it puts on its lows, the more people that basically, you know, sell out of fear or you could just say get margin calls for all those who are overleveraged. And it just like has a self-reinforcing effect of making the stock fall even more. At the same time, when the stock, you know, you could say holds strong or moves to the upside, it attracts more of that dip buying crowd again pushing prices higher. What's going to make this stock so interesting throughout the rest of this week is that we have a big marketwide event with the Jackson Symposium. So, basically like depending on how that plays out, we'll have a big impact on you could say Palunteer's fate in the short term as well. I would say so because of course if the overall market ends up ripping whenever Powell speaks I think that Palunteer will probably follow along right it seems to be doing that at least in the short term which is good to see so I'll be watching it very closely Mike it's one of my favorite stocks and of course the Jackson Hole event is one of the biggest events of the week and just checking in on the earnings for the rest of the week tomorrow might be the biggest earnings of the week with Walmart reporting before open there could be a lot of info on how consumers are using their money. Um, so watch Walmart closely. Walmart's had a lot of good price action in the short term. Um, if we actually go check Walmart's chart really quickly, you guys might be surprised to see it uh picking up a little bit in the short term. You know, as the market sold off the past few days, Walmart's been kind of ripping back to the upside. Yeah, Walmart is the largest company by revenue. So, you know, depending on how their earnings come in, it definitely does show like uh, you know, how consumers are doing just like you said. So, let's keep a close eye on it and it reports 1 hour before open. Besides that, Tom, let's jump right into the good stuff, which are some setups and predictions. And a stock that is close on watch is Robin Hood. Now, I know uh this one was certainly sniped in yesterday's video as it fell quite a bit today. Looking at Robin Hood now. Um, it did recover considerably from this morning's lows like most stocks did, but it's definitely still on the bearish radar. What I will say is that there was a considerable amount of buying today. So, you know, the setup isn't as good as it was yesterday, but there still is opportunity as long as Robin Hood puts pressure on its recent lows. I would love to see the stock back below like 10260 and actively again putting pressure on recent lows. If that's the case, I see bearish opportunities. If the stock doesn't get below that level or if it's not actively dropping, then you know, I find it very hard to justify the risk of shorting this one. That was an awesome breakdown today at $16. I know a lot of people actually profited off this one this morning, so shout out to you, Mike. That was a fantastic move by Robin Hood. I was actually watching it quite a bit myself. Uh with my first stock here, I'm watching Caterpillar to the upside for a possible double top breakout. Uh I know I know Caterpillar actually does have a strong positive correlation to SPY, but again, it's one of those like safe haven. I would say more of like a value stock. It's not something like Palunteer or Nvidia for example, right? It's something that's more consistent, especially if we go to like a daily chart and we zoom out a little bit. you know, over the years, it's not going to have like those crazy gap ups or gap downs, but it does just nice and consistently uh move higher. And of course, it moves down too at some points, but obviously not like Palunteer. Um, but looking at CAT, if we end up breaking this double top in the short term around 422, I'll be watching for more upside opportunities. The options on Caterpillar actually did really good today. The ones expiring next week, like if we look at the 420 strikes ran up around 50%, we look at like the 42250s, they were like 55%, 425s were 61%. So, we did see some pretty good moves with the Caterpillar options. I know some people say that this stock can be boring, but again, these these boring stocks like Caterpillar and Walmart, their options can be pretty good sometimes. Definitely. All right, another ticker that is definitely on watch is AEM. And I really like the riskreward with this one to the upside. This stock has been uptrending in such a great way ever since 2024. And basically it is a gold mining company. We did see a nice increase today with gold. And basically the stock popped up by three and a half%. We are getting very close to testing highs right around like $137 and like80 or so. Uh basically this stock is definitely on my radar. um where let's say in the worst case scenario where it falls below like 130 150 then it can just be like a losing setup and that is where the risk is where in the ideal case scenario the stock continues to strengthen and break past its highs and if that happens there's you know really no major resistance overhead so um I think the riskreward is positively skewed and it is definitely on my bullish radar and wait till you see today's big money play because it's definitely uh tied to this in a pretty exciting way. Yeah, AEM was exciting today. There was a lot of gold mining stocks that were popping off like Bareric Gold was another one that was uh on my radar quite a bit today, too. So, I'll definitely keep AEM and a lot of the gold stocks on the radar in the short term, Mike. And with my next setup, I'm actually watching Google once again. I know I called this one out yesterday. It dropped under $200 today, which was a huge psychological level. And I thought that it breaking under 200 and especially holding underneath it at the end of the day. Rejecting there once again was a pretty good sign into tomorrow. So I am still watching Google to the downside as long as it stays under 200 and we start to see some good pressure on the lows from today. We can see on the book map that today $200 was pretty critical once it ended up breaking down. That was a big spot for Google. There was actually a lot of volume on the breakdown there around 22,000. And you can see how they even came in as sellers overhead and then ended up getting wiped out again as Google had a lot of volatility here. So if we hold under this key resistance level, keep watching Google to the downside. I know I looked at this one yesterday, but I think it's just very in play right now considering that it's touching such a large level and that it's holding underneath it. Yeah, that is a key level. Let's keep a close eye on this one. And Google has been moving pretty well in the short term. So good stuff there. And besides that, Tom, I think we are all set for today's momentum plays. And with the first one, we have HIMS, ticker symbol HIMS, to the upside. Yeah, that was a great end of day recovery by HIMS here. If it can break above the key $44 resistance tomorrow, then keep watching it up. With the next one, we have Terra Wolf, ticker symbol WULF, also to the upside. Yeah, Wolf again, it there's a pretty good support here around $8.60. 60s to $8.80. If it could end up breaking above intraday highs, very close to $9.40, then watch for a continuation. And then with the last one, we have Kamico, ticker symbol CCJ, to the downside. Now CCJ ended up selling off in a pretty rough way today, closing down 4%. It was a lot worse at its low of day. It ended up bouncing off of $69. So if it can break below there, then watch for a downside continuation. All right, so we have these three stocks on the radar for potential continuations tomorrow if and only if they break through the levels listed. As always, prioritize trading in a smart, long-term oriented, disciplined way. You can learn all about this for free in the key lessons channel and the Stocked Up Discord. So definitely check that out. And then Tom, let's jump right into today's $4.5 million monster big money trade. and we are looking at ticker symbol GLD. So today the trader here bought the 315 strike call options that expire very soon on September 12th of 2025. Uh technically for my advanced traders out there, this is a call debit spread where they also shorted the 330 strike call options. Essentially, the trader here is risking $4.5 million to make around $34.7 million. But I will say this is a high-risisk highreward trade. While you look at the risk of 4.5 million to potentially make 34.7 million, uh, clearly that's very positively skewed, but the risk comes with the strike price. The 315 strike price is kind of far out of the money. So basically in order for this trade to win the ETF has to move up by a lot. Um what I find very interesting about this is that the expiration is very soon. So this trader is you know laying down heavy capital on a trade again that expires soon. So they're expecting GLD to make a large move higher. Um also it was nice to see GLD hold strong today. We have a key Jackson hole event coming up as well and uh gold has been doing pretty well for uh 2025. I know it's been kind of taking a breather over the past few months, but this is a very interesting setup. Oh my gosh, Mike. Are these the traders over there at uh at Evercore here who are warning warning of the market dropping 7 to 15%. Uh, it seems like a pretty risky trade here into the end of the week. But I will say the way that gold bounced up today really caught my attention as well. Like I was watching it all throughout the day watching the gold miners and I think it's a very smart play here into the end of the week. And I feel like that there could even be scenarios where like let's just say the market stays flat and choppy where gold could still move given what Powell says. So I feel like that this is a an interesting setup here. Now again, like you said, there is some risk with it being the 315 strike. Um, but I will say, you know, looking at gold's overall downtrend recently. I feel like that if we did start to pop up and recover, we could start to get pretty close to 315, if not even get there. And of course, this goes out to September 12th, so it's not like it expires this week by any means, but definitely very soon. Uh, definitely a ballsy trade, Mike. It's pretty rare that we see a $4 million play like this. Yeah, and what is nice is with the 315 strike uh being in play is that it's close to all-time highs for GLD, but it's at the point where like if GLD can get to 315, I would not be surprised one bit that it could like also gain enough momentum to break through the all-time high and potentially even have an extended run. So, yeah, let's keep a close eye on GLD. It'll be very interesting. And if you're new to the channel, definitely make sure to obliterate that subscribe button so you can get our videos recommended to you more often. Every single video, we cover big money trades, important spy levels and analysis, most important news, events, earnings, and everything you have to know about the market. Uh again, when you subscribe, you'll get our videos recommended to you more often. But Tom, let's also give a giant shout out to today's member of the day, Garrison F4 in the Stocked Up Discord, who had quite the day today. He had a bunch of profits. Huge shout out to you, Garrison. Keep up the great work going forward and uh this is awesome to see. If you guys are into short-term trading, definitely make sure to check out Bookmap if you have not already. It is the X-ray vision of the stock market. Stocked up viewers save quite a bit. And like Tom showed with Google today, you see quite literally exactly where large buy and sell orders are stacked up along with so much other useful trading data. Uh basically if you use the link down below, a special offers tab will appear and again you can save quite a bit. So definitely check it out. Besides that, we are set for a very exciting rest of the week. Thank you all so much for watching and let's crush it in the market tomorrow.