The meeting was a training session led by Ty ("Bitcoin Playboy") focused on the Opening Range Breakout (ORB) trading model, emphasizing his updated approach versus historical usage.
Ty explained the history of the ORB model, detailed his modifications to make it effective in modern markets, and provided statistical data from his own trading to demonstrate profitability.
The session included a practical walkthrough of how to set up and execute the strategy, examples of recent trades, discussion of risk management, and the importance of simplicity and consistency in trading strategies.
Attendees were encouraged to experiment with the model themselves and participate during Ty’s free weekly live trading sessions.
Action Items
Ty: Share links to the referenced historical resources, research articles, and live trading audit for further reading and transparency.
Attendees: Try applying the updated ORB model in the next trading session, at least by marking the opening range and observing price action.
Attendees: Consider attending Ty’s free live trading sessions on Tuesdays and Sundays to observe the strategy in practice.
History and Background of the ORB Model
The Opening Range Breakout (ORB) model is one of the oldest trading strategies, popularized since the 1980s and 1990s by traders like Tony Crabel, Sheldon Knight, and Arthur Merill.
The model became widely used, resulting in "alpha decay" as the edge diminished due to overuse by traders and automated systems.
Ty clarified he is not the creator of the model, but has refined it with new variables to address the loss of edge in the classic approach.
Ty’s Data and Rationale for Model Refinement
Ty trades the updated ORB model live, with a well-documented trading journal and data available for audit.
Over 6 months and 45 trades, his ORB approach yielded about a 73% win rate and nearly 60% portfolio appreciation—averaging 10% per month.
He emphasized live (not backtested) data, showing the model’s results in genuine market conditions.
Ty advocates for conservative expectations, focusing on consistent returns rather than unrealistic rapid portfolio doubling.
Modifications and Step-by-Step Process for the ORB Model
The traditional approach used ORB on thousands of stocks; Ty suggests focusing on one liquid asset (primarily NASDAQ, sometimes gold, ES, or YM).
Steps for his updated ORB model:
Wait for the first 15-minute candle after market open (9:45am EST/6:45am PST).
Mark the high and low of this candle to set the opening range.
Set alerts at the range boundaries; await a 5-minute candle close (not just a wick) outside the range for confirmation.
Use a modified Fibonacci retracement for take profit levels if time-based liquidity targets (New York, Asia, or London session highs/lows) are not near.
Prefer taking trades early in the session (6:50–7:10am PST); avoid entries later in the morning.
Risk management: Place stop loss at 50% of the opening range and adjust stops as targets are hit.
Practical Examples and Trade Walkthroughs
Ty walked through multiple recent trades, providing TradingView snapshots and explanations of trade selection, management, and outcomes.
He showed examples of both winners and losers, stressing the model is not perfect but produces consistent results when rules are followed.
Demonstrated use of the Lux Algo indicator to automate marking opening range levels.
Emphasized adaptability: traders can further tweak with other indicators if desired.
Results and Community Engagement
Consistent returns were shown, with a mix of wins and losses, but overall strong profitability and risk management.
Ty encouraged feedback, community sharing of experiences, and openness about both successes and challenges using the ORB strategy.
Offered free access to live sessions for further learning and real-time observation of the strategy.
Decisions
Focus on a single asset for ORB trading — Simplifies execution, increases consistency, and aligns with Ty’s tested results.
Require 5-minute candle close for entry confirmation — Reduces false breakouts compared to the historical wick-only approach.
Open Questions / Follow-Ups
What further modifications or filters can enhance the ORB model for individual traders?
Are there additional assets (beyond NASDAQ, gold, ES, YM) where the updated ORB model performs reliably?
Will there be future sessions covering Ty’s other trading models (e.g., ILM)?