this is one of the oldest models I personally know of and I think any Trader you ask will also know of this model is called the orb or the opening range break now it's been used by multiple Infamous Traders since the 80s and '90s um some of which will go over in a second the reason I'm making this video is because if you guys don't know me uh my name is Ty Bitcoin Playboy I notoriously use data to support the thesis that a trade structure orb model will be profitable in the long term and I have statistical evidence to show you today that the orb model in the way that I now trade it and the way I now trade it is important versus the old way it was traded because that old way has lost its alpha decay over time if you don't know what alpha decay means it just means the strategy back then became so popular and you know so utilized by Traders hedge fund institutions Bots algorithms Etc that it lost its value now of course the model itself still provided value as a continuation model but you had to tweak some things and I'm here to show you the things I have tweaked to now make this old model brand new and refurbished uh for 2025 I'm also referencing this as the easiest possible possible model to learn because I can teach it to you in under five minutes and you can utilize it tomorrow in the next session and I can guarantee a longevity of success if done properly because I have front and live tested data I don't by the way I don't back test anything I front test it you you perform differently in a back tested environment so generally speaking I don't like that data I want to do it in a real environment and see how I perform so let's first show you guys a little bit of the history of the opening Range model before I go and uh you know annotate and dictate exactly what I've changed with it since then so some of the main things to note is although this model was utilized way back in the day and we can see here you know back in the 1990s there was a you know famous book that came out by Tony Corbell which was the day trading with short-term price patterns and the opening range breakout right 31 years after it's published still an abundance of opening range strategies on the market um not only this right uh Not only was Cel a huge proprietor of this model but you know Sheldon Knight was a well-known one that used it um we have tons of analytical evidence from the 9s and early 2000s of this model and exactly how it was traded of course this was very nuanced to how traded today there's a thousand different ways to trade orb today but I do want to show you guys that this is an old old model I'm not making this model today this isn't something that I'm coming up with um I'm just tweaking it um with a few new variables that I found to work well with it over time so my data is completely independent of others and Others May trade it differently but I have data support that it works and data support that works in a real environment uh without back testing years uh of data so um a few of these websites will be listed below if if you want to check it out you know this one was posted in 2022 um this one was back in you know March of this year and then we have a massive uh Swiss this is from SII research um this is a massive research article about orb and its performance since 2020 they referenced Tony kraal in here as back in the 1990s he was a um huge proprietor of it Arthur Merill of course was another big one it's hard to say who made it I don't know but they are the ones who we can annotate uh as authors from back in the 80s and 90s so with this um all of these will be in the comments I'm not going to go over the historical evidence and how it's traded because it's useless to talk about today but these three links will be down in the com in in the uh link below for you guys to check out if you want now I do want to show you guys my data because this is what's important right the way they used to trade orb really doesn't matter all that much because as I said uh its value has significantly decayed um what you see here on the screen right now is I'm going to myself um this is data from my personal trading and I I do this live every single day in front of 500 plus people so it's audible um by the majority and I'll have a link in this for this in the comments too for you to check if you want to audit my guide and look at everything look at all the trading view snapshots look at where the positions were taken Etc come check it out um but there's only one piece of data on here that matters and this one piece of data is my orb versus ilm the ilm doesn't matter it's another another model I trade and it will be in another video but or over 45 trades and that's over a course of about 6 months so I've taken 45 trades over 6 months right I'm not trading that often I'm conservative but I make a lot of money doing it a 73% win rate with about 30 R collected now if you don't understand what 30 R means just multiply it by two and that's the portfolio appreciation given that model so just with orb alone I've garnered nearly a 60% portfolio allocation in 6 months that's amazing I mean that's you know 10% a month I mean what else do you want to ask for now I know it's not doubling your portfolio in a day or you know you know making uh you know a million dollars in a week right these are conservative models but again most people online have been poisoned to this idea that uh you need to have a a model that doubles your portfolio every week or you're lacking in your fundamental understanding of trading I think it's the opposite I I'm a very conservative Trader and I would guarantee I probably make more than 99% of retail Traders on the market today so I'm here to prove this and tell you how I've achieved a 73% win rate a 60% portfolio allocation over 6 months and we have a ton of examples to go through here and I'm going to go through some examples that happened last 3 days so these are relevant these aren't cherry-picked examples like uh we can take we'll go through and just find something that says orb right so this is orb model I took on March 27 we can pull up a snapshot here hopefully it's a full snapshot so here we are we're can go through a few of these trades but before I go through the trades you need to understand what is the ore what have you done to it how have you modified it so let's do that first now we're going to quickly go through this document I've created um you know looks beautiful I know and for good reason because it's very valuable um beautiful things come in valuable things come in beautiful packages right uh opening range break one thing you need to know about this robust model is that it's a continuation so when trading this we're looking to have a continuation of a trend as the name suggest it's the opening range of an asset now back in the 90s and 80s most people would use this on a plethora of about 7,000 different stocks right we we actually know that this is continued to be used this way up until 2024 with SEI um financials Foundation doing their their rhetoric and their you know analysis their analysis came from 7,000 stocks I'm here to tell you that that is 100% not what I'm going to be doing not what I've done and not something I would ever teach I would never tell you that this model has to be used on a stock that has above you know 10% average volume over the last three days trading above X trading above Y and then you can find that I mean that is too much filtering to find in a single session for a retail Trader maybe for a massive fund it's fine and you can produce a higher Edge in that way but I'm here to tell you that you need to trade only one asset in and you can trade the same asset every day which makes it easy that's the goal of a model is it's easy easy to identify easy to enter easy to exit easy to take profit Etc so let's go through this index what we need to do for orb is identify the opening range set alarms on the Range boundaries opening range breaks will Define this the standard deviations and the settings to find those and identifying bad market conditions where you would not take it now the first step of this is identifying the Open Range what is the open range we are going to be using ES ym NASDAQ and gold those are the four that I can say work very well with the model now I only trade one of the four I only trade this on NASDAQ sometimes on gold yes but 99% of the time I trading NASDAQ it has higher volatility and I like the fact that it continues often and if this is a continuation model that means I can use it quite often on NASDAQ so what we're going to do here is orb is defined by the first 15minute candle that closes after market open which means you have to wait at 9930 a.m. EST or 6:30 a.m. PST 15 minutes so it becomes 9:45 a.m. or 645 a.m. once 6:45 or 9:45 a.m. hits I need you to Mark the lowest and highest point in that last 15minute candles so go to the 15-minute candle time frame Mark the high and the low easy right it should be now the next step is to wait this is also the hardest step for most Traders they don't know how to wait set alarms on each side of this breakout here what we're going to be looking for now is where I've modified the strategy we want an M5 candle close above the range we don't want a wick right this is what they used to do in the 90s and the early 2000s is they just wanted a candle to break above and theyd enter I think it's obviously faulty now and probably had a good Edge back then but does not work anymore you need to have candle close outside the range in order to take this long and or short now the next part about this is standard deviation settings we'll get into a second of what exactly this is and why you need it but these are the settings take a screenshot and modify your Fibonacci retracement for this how you're going to use this is if you get a long breakout so a 5 minute close to the upside you're going to look to take the Fib retracement from the low to the high it's going to give you a plethora of extensions these are takeprofit points now you're going to use this if you do not have timebase liquidity on your side all time based liquidity means is this I'm quickly going to go over here this is an example of the orb where you would just take profit into the standards at 1.5 at 2.5 and if you can hold the runner eventually to four now what a Time based liquidity means is you will have and I'm going to move to current day session to make this a little bit easier for you guys current day actually had a fantastic orb as well time based liquidity is always our number one objective what we would prefer to take profit into is New York highs Mark the highs out New York lows we can take Asia lows like this and as we can see look at that a fantastic move outside now I'm going to remove this and you can see how reactive price is to these levels I don't care who you are how you trade coincidentally you probably use these levels whether you know it or not Asia was the low of day for the NASDAQ today you can see this massive reversal from this level as we can see it traded into London's highs that I just made now we have the Asia session opening up again look at this price moved immediately into Asia highs and is now retracing this is why these are the number one liquidity points that you want to use for take profit and stop losses right these are the ideas of where profits you know price is going to draw to if you don't have it if they're not close enough right if you don't have New York Asia or London session time based liquidity near you it's okay you will use this instead so make sure you understand why and when you use that now there can be some bad days for orb typically speaking you want to trade orb early in the day I actually have data supporting the thesis of when you want to trade the orb I have never taken an orb trade after 8 10 a.m. so this is PST right this will be 11 be by lunch by lunch time by the time New York sessions having lunch you should not take an orb trade it is going to be useless by that time because you've been trading within the opening range most of the time you're probably waiting for news at that point and there's going to be no continuation past that level orb works the best if you can take it immediately during the 650 to 710 window now the best Windows you can see most of my trades are all collaborated at the uh 650 um time Mark so this is a another right 15 or five minutes past when the orb closes so if orb closes within 15 to 20 minutes you should have your entry that's why this is one of the oldest models but also one of the easiest because you wait 15 minutes to get the range then you wait another 15 minutes to get entry and then you have an average of about 30 minutes to an hour and a half uh to stop loss or takeprofit which is great that's why it is so easy and simple and how what I recommend to a lot of new Traders and guess what that's it like that is the entire structure of the orb now I want to go into to some examples to properly show you what's going on here um one of the first orb examples I want to show you is obviously uh one of the biggest ones that I've noticed personally right this is going to be session open Mark the high Mark the low move down wait for an M5 close outside get your M5 closed outside take entry Mark out the Fibonacci retracement from low to high using the settings I gave you and then we're going to take profit into these levels half C deviation typically you can move your entry your stop loss up to zero Z CU it shouldn't revisit it by this point yet once you hit ne1 which is your one standard deviation you can move stops continually so we just continue move stops up in this trend hit two standard deviations and there you go you have a profit now you can keep holding of course and this is where discretion in your own tweaking comes in I'm not here to give you uh you know the the complete model and tell you that it's at its best point no the model can always be enhanced with certain you know additions that you want to make to it you know add add some sort of moving average or add some sort of you know price Ed or vpvr volume OTC you know smart money concept whatever it is I'm just trying to show you that this is undoubtedly one of the oldest Concepts in trading and it still works now I can only Define still works as the way that I have tweaked it and modified it so my orb still works of course and I'm extremely profitable with it in six months I mean over six months the two models I've been using I maintain a 70% win rate 70% win rate is insane everyone would love a 70% win rate whether they want to say it or not and almost a 100 R collected which almost you know a 2x on the portfolio I know this is abnormal returns but keep in mind I'm here just to show you what's possible I'm not here to say that you can do this exactly like I have but you can achieve results similar because you would be trading the exact same model that I am so hopefully you understand orb a little bit more it is a very simple model I want to go through some examples real quick and maybe show you an indicator that can help you with this it is by Lux algo so shout out the guys that are working over there this is called Lux algo orb and targets all this is going to do is do the easiest thing for you one of the easiest things that you can do it's going to Mark out the orb high and orb low I'm actually going to show you today's session for orb because it was a bad one I'm not giving you a model here that has 100% win rate there's going to be good days there's going to be bad days so for the sake of this one let's check it out you have a 5 minute close outside the range here today on my live stream I'll put up a quick little snippet we did not take this one for one reason I I wonder if you guys can tell what the reason was I'm not taking this orb most likely to if we have one to an upside especially with news and 15 minutes because we are right on the 15 minute 200 EMA fair fair and inside a 15minute uh fair value up if you move to the 15-minute time frame it is sitting in a supply Zone you have this massive block where we auction off orders and the Bears typically will come in and sell this off again if a 15-minute candle doesn't close inside and guess what it didn't so we didn't take the trade it would have been a losing orb we did in fact take the orb short to the downside today and took a loss I'll show you this in the journal although it's not a perfect strategy it will produce you profits just use it correctly it's the easiest I'm telling you the easiest model to use you can see took the short ended up getting stopped out I lost about minus 0.7 r on that one today and the day before made 2.2 hour so no biggie at all but I am here to show you the complete reality of this model because it's great and it's quite frankly changed a lot of my members lives and you know I'll put up some testimon right now people getting fun in payouts um but we trade this every single day here's another one right here's the opening Range High opening range low wait for a five minute close outside here's your five minute close outside take entry immediately stop loss at 50% of the range and then what you're going to do is take your Fibonacci retracement like I taught you and you're going to pull it from the low to the high now we can look to get minus 1.5 I think don't think it even twoo even came out of this it just trailed for the rest of the day yeah so max allocation here was 1.5 C so as you come to the one trim off and then you can move your stops to entry there you can see how this is consistent throughout every day now I can show you a plethora of examples let's go here uh so this was March 28th this was an insane day right this is an insane insane day you get your close outside here stop loss at half the range and then you're going to pull up your Fibonacci retracement to see what are deviations are going to be and you know of course what a insane day this was because this is a full minus four standard deviations so I think by now I've proven my point that this model is extremely consistent I mean here we'll do it again we can just continue to look at each of the opening ranges and how they performed here's 650 a. I'm going to pull and you would have taken entry right here stop loss at half the range take profit here looks like you would have to have done it which looks to be somewhere around these Asia highs take profit here a quick one to one R not bad but you get money out of it which is the goal at the end of the day let's go back to this one this looks like another fantastic orb so March has been consistent that's also why I'm making this video is cuz March has proven a massive amount of value in this model especially the one we trade specifically I can't speak to the way other people trade the or but nonetheless I know that the foundation of the model and how it's built works well over time if you take a look at this trade here a nice 1 to 2.38 r five minute closes outside the range take profit into the lows here you got it I mean it's just consistent win after win take a loss win big win take a loss win take a loss take a loss win win win it's so consistent and I hope more people use it because most of you need more simple models in your trading toolbox because you're over trading and you're using too complicated techniques that don't exactly work or listening to coaches in the market that don't have data like this to support their thesis that not only are they profitable but their models produce positive returns over a long period of time last thing to note I encourage anyone else that trades orb um to comment on this video tell me how you personally trade orb and if it has changed your trading in any way if it's helped shape your confidence in trading if it's helped change your trading profit potential if it's increased your profits even if it's decreased maybe you have something bad to say about orb comment down below if you want to see me trade orb every single day in a real environment there's going to be a link down below so you can watch it generally it's free every Tuesday and Sunday watch me do it for free we just did it today um so best way to learn is watch someone who's already profitable commit trades and trade in a real active environment so without further Ado that is today's video video on orb please try it soon again you know as much as you may not trust me that this model is fantastic and produce a massive return go try it yourself I always encourage people to do this if you don't want to trust me trust the data the data doesn't lie and you attempting it tomorrow in your live session uh even just marking it out so you understand where it's at and the potential it has is going to be great so I will see you guys in another video bye-bye