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Fantasy Football Tight End Risk Analysis

Jul 29, 2025

Overview

This analysis reviews the riskiest tight ends in fantasy football based on their performance in 2023 and projects their outlook for 2025, using a statistical risk scoring system. The discussion covers individual player trends, positional depth, and draft strategy considerations.

Tight End Performance Metrics

  • Tight end risk measured by frequency of top 6, top 12, and outside top 12 finishes in 2023.
  • Points system: top 6 finish (1 point), 7–12 finish (2 points), outside top 12 (4 points); lower average = less risk.
  • Analysis focused on the top 24 tight ends by current ADP, including three rookies.

Elite and Consistent Performers

  • George Kittle led all TEs in top 6 finishes (10), yet remains undervalued in drafts.
  • Trey McBride and Brock Bowers are also being drafted as potential top TEs.
  • David Njoku, Mark Andrews, and Sam LaPorta highlighted for strong consistency and opportunity.

Riskier and Inconsistent Options

  • Hunter Henry had notable top 12 performances but was inconsistent overall.
  • Tucker Kraft, Dallas Goedert, and Mike Gesicki had several up-and-down weeks and questionable roles.
  • Britain Strange (14 games outside top 12), Mike Gesicki, and Kyle Pitts (11 games each) were among the most volatile.

Projected 2025 Tier Breakdown

  • Tier 1: George Kittle (lowest risk), Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, David Njoku, Mark Andrews, Jonnu Smith.
  • Tier 2: Travis Kelce, Sam LaPorta, Dallas Goedert, Tucker Kraft, Zach Ertz.
  • Tier 3: Notable upside for T.J. Hockenson (injury comeback), Evan Engram (expanded role), Hunter Henry (dependent on red zone).
  • Tier 4: Mike Gesicki (late-season usage boost), Cade Otton, Jake Ferguson, Britain Strange, Dalton Kincaid, others.

Key Draft and Strategy Notes

  • George Kittle should be considered the TE1 in drafts given supporting factors (teammate injuries, offensive changes).
  • Rookie TEs (e.g., Brock Bowers, Tyler Warren) are risky; most do not produce consistent fantasy value early.
  • Draft value often diverges from risk score and recent performance—ADP does not always match fantasy reliability.

Decisions

  • George Kittle preferred as TE1 over Trey McBride and Brock Bowers for 2025 drafts.
  • Cautious approach to Kyle Pitts—recommend avoiding unless dramatic role change occurs.

Recommendations / Advice

  • Prioritize tight ends with low risk scores and consistent weekly production for fantasy stability.
  • Roster rookie TEs only in deeper formats or as upside stashes, given typical production trends.
  • Target late-round or sleeper tight ends with emerging usage patterns but avoid chasing single big-week outliers.

Full transcript