The tight end position is already the riskiest in all of fantasy football, but who are the riskiest of the riskiest? Headliner Nation, hopefully everybody's doing well out there. Today, we are going to be diving into the riskiest tight ends in all of fantasy football from last season and whether or not that continues into 2025. and we're going to jump right into the action breaking down which tight ends finished with the most top six performances last season. George KD led the way with 10 and I have been an avid George KD supporter for quite a while. But it just never feels like he gets the respect he deserves and hopefully after last season he will moving forward. But it doesn't even feel like it because he's not even the top tight end being drafted. Outside of that, Trey McBride and Brock Bowers, those are the other two guys being discussed as the tight end won off the board this season. Now, you might be asking yourself, Kyle, how are we trying to determine who the riskiest tight ends are from last season? Well, throughout this video, we are going to take a look at how many top six performances each player had, how many top 12 performances each player had, and how many times they finished outside the top 12 tight ends. The names that we'll be talking about are the top 24 tight ends based on current average draft position. Every time you finish top six, you get one point. Every time you finish from 7 to 12, you get two points. And every time you finish outside the top 12, you get four points. The tight ends with the lowest average score are our least riskiest tight ends heading into 2025. Which tight ends finish just inside the top 12, ending the week as a tight end 7 through tight end 12 and seeing Hunter Henry at the top of this list might shock you, but last season he had some pretty decent performances. He was up and down. There would be times where he'd completely disappear. There would be times where he'd give you just enough fantasy points, but that's the way the entire tight end position is, except for like three or four guys. Tucker Craft and Dallas GD are also a couple of tight ends who last season they just didn't feel consistent. It felt like they gave you some pretty decent performances, but they're right behind Hunter Henry with four top 12 finishes each. So, both of these guys were able to give you just enough top 12 for performances to maybe make worth drafting them again in 2025. Now, the number that you never want to see is finishing outside the top 12. Because realistically, as a tight end, if you trip and fall into the end zone in any given week, you're going to finish as a top 12 tight end. The the threshold for top 12 finishes is really not that high. And if you're not able to find that, that's a big problem. One other note I want to make really quick before we take a look at who finished outside the top 12 the most. I've been battling an upper respiratory infection and bronchitis for a few weeks now and it's catching up to me. I'm doing my best to power through this video, but if I don't sound the same or if I sound like I don't have all the energy in the world, headliner nation, I apologize. I am giving you everything I have right now and I'll continue to do so. I have got so much medication rushing through my veins right now that I definitely need to be drinking more water because I just feel like I'm consumed in medication. Britain Strange with 14 led the way outside the top 12. Not shocking giving the fact that Evan Ingram really was the main guy at the tight end position. They didn't really run a whole lot of two tight end sets. But when Evan Ingram missed, Britain Strange didn't look all that bad. But with a healthy Trevor Lawrence, maybe Britain Strange can find some more consistency. Now, drafting Travis Hunter really hurt his stock because Travis Hunter is going to see a lot of the targets that Britain Strange would have saw this season. But Britain Strange could still end up being a touchdown red zone type of player that we look towards in really good matchups where he could end up scoring. Now, right behind him with 12 performances outside the top 12 is Mikei. Mike has a write up in the draft guide from me. Here's a reminder. Make sure you go get your draft guide. Information is down below at the bottom of the screen. It is the best purchase you will make all year. I can promise you that if you take your fantasy football seriously or you want to take your fantasy football to the next level or if you just want to embarrass your family. It took a while for Mikei to get going last season to begin the year. He just wasn't consistent. But as the year wore on, his usage seemed to get a little bit more and a little bit more important to the offensive structure as a whole. Now T. Higgins is signed up now. Jamar Chase has his new mega deal. And if T. Higgins can stay on the field, Maseeki is no more than the number three target on this team. But on a team with a defense that may have issues that is going to throw the ball a ton, the number three target is a tight end isn't all that bad, especially on an offense like the Bengals. And if T. Higgins misses any time, then Micazeki is the number two target and that could give him a really big boost. We'll talk about his overall score here in a few minutes when we rank everybody out by their risk score, but Mike is one of those guys that I'm willing to take a bet on this season. Everyone's favorite trap at the tight end position each season. Kyle Pittz, he finished with 11 games outside the top 12. That doesn't shock anybody. He is probably the biggest let down at the tight end position year after year. And maybe 2025 he finally does it. whatever that may be. I'll let him break out on someone else's team this year. All right, now we're diving into the meat and potatoes. We're going to go to overall risk score. Look through each one of the four tiers and try to dissect the tight ends that we feel like could be better, worse, or the same heading into 2025. Not only that, when we're done with that, we'll lay out everybody by their overall ADP currently, including the three rookies who are being drafted inside the top 24 tight ends. and we'll see how the ADP looks compared to the risk score. The lowest risk score from last season by far was George KD. And to me, that's not shocking, but it still doesn't feel like he is getting the love that he deserves. Same offense, same quarterback, no Debo Samuel, an often injured Christian McCaffrey, and Jawan Jennings, who's currently disputing his contract. Even Brandon Iayuk, we have no idea how healthy Brandon Iuk will be to begin the season. George KD for me is a lot to finish in tier one once again and should be considered way more heavily as the tight end one than what he currently is. Number two, 2.2 for their risk score. Trey McBride, even with only two touchdowns last season, was one of the most consistent tight ends that we could find. He's going to score a lot more touchdowns this season. He's going to be one of the better shots at taking the tight end one spot by the end of the year. I currently have him ranked as the tight end two. Brock Bowers at 2.31, a new offense, a new quarterback, a new everything really, it feels like with that team and an increased run game. I like Brock Bowers, but I wonder if he can be a lot like Trey McBride last season where he puts up a lot of really good games, but we get a little bit disappointed because he's just not scoring as often as we would like, especially considering the fact Ashton Genty is going to pound the football for the Raiders. It's kind of crazy to see David Nooku finish this high. Of the 11 games he played last season, six times he finished inside the top 12. He is still a mainstay weapon in that Browns offense and should be once again in 2025. The good news is is I think they have some quarterbacks that are going to be way better at getting him the football than what we've seen over the last year with Deshun Watson, DTR, and all the other confusion with Jameus Winston throwing three touchdowns and three interceptions at will. I like David Nooku. I don't know if he's going to get lost in the grand scheme of things with Cedric Tilman coming back, Jerry Judy being there for an entire season. My hope is is that this offense doesn't forget about David Njoku either. Mark Andrews and John Smith finish out tier one. Mark Andrews, if you would have done an assessment like this after the first few weeks of the season, he wouldn't have even been found anywhere on the map. The guy was terrible, but then for the rest of the season, he was one of the best tight ends that you could have in your lineup. Are you willing to go with that risk? Once again, they've added DeAndre Hopkins to their offensive scheme. Does that take away from Mark Andrews at this point? I really don't feel like it does. Lamar Jackson loves Mark Andrews and I think that connection will continue. Janu Smith for sure is going to fall out of tier one and he is a guy that I really can't even find myself investing in right now because I have no idea how Arthur Smith is actually going to utilize him. Are they going to run 12 personnel? How often does Pat Firemuse get on the field? Is he looked at in the red zone? Is Jonno Smith going to be the number two target behind DK Metaf? There's a lot of questions with an offensive coordinator that is inept to deal with any offense in the NFL and unless he has Derrick Henry and AJ Brown basically dismantling people around them, he hasn't been good at calling plays. Travis Kelce is the main reason and the epitome why we say hate ADPs don't hate players. Because overall last season among tight ends, it wasn't all that bad. 16 games he finished inside the top 12 in half of those. That puts his risk score at 2.68. He just missed out on tier one. But his season last year wasn't a disappointment because of Travis Kelce. His disappointment last season was because of how high he was drafted. this year based on where his ADP will be looking to go, which we'll talk about in a minute. Travis Kelce could actually end up being a huge bargain. Sam Leaporter right after him. I have no concerns about that offense. He started off slow last season. Sam Leaporter should be a guy that's right back to it this year. Maybe not as many targets from a couple of years ago during his rookie year because Jameson Williams is a much bigger part of that offense now. But if Williams were to miss a game, if Amaras Stain Brown were to miss a game, both of those things are going to make Sam Leaporta a huge tight end one upside. The biggest thing that's going to be an issue, Jir Gibbs is getting a ton of looks in the passing game and is even running out of the slot. Now, Dallas GD I have a lot of trouble trusting because they run the ball so much and then you have AJ Brown and then you have Devonte Smith. Dallas GD I think is going to be a guy that is going to have a lot of up and down weeks. Tucker Craft for me kind of the same thing. What does what does he look like moving forward with Matthew Golden the first round draft pick potentially being the number one target on this team? What happens to Dantavian Wix, Jaden Reed, Romeo Dos, all of those guys. How do those targets get dispersed between between so many different players? They're also going to run the ball an awful lot with Josh Jacobs. And then Zack Z. He's back in Washington, but they added Debo Samuel, which could really hurt some of the targets that Zack Z used to see. That's going to be a lot. These three guys right here, they have a lot of potential and a decent amount of upside, but they have a lot of guys around them that are getting looks. When you look at tier three, there's two names that stick out right away is guys that can make big-time jumps. TJ Hawinson would be one. He came back from ACL surgery last season. He wasn't fully healthy all year. What does he look like heading into this season with JJ McCarthy? Is he the number two target behind Justin Jefferson or is he the number three target behind Jordan Addison? Jordan Addison, I don't know if he's going to end up missing time. He wrapped up his case with the speeding a couple days ago. So, we'll see what ends up happening with him in any type of suspension. TJ Hoginson absolutely has an opportunity. But then you take a look at Evan Ingram. Denver's been missing the type of tight end to make plays down the field to run the seam and stretch the field and Evan Ingram is going to be that guy. Shawn Payeyton had a guy like Evan Ingram on his list this season. And when Jacksonville decided to cut ties, he was there and waiting. Evan Ingram could end up being big this season because I definitely think he's the number two target behind Courtland Sutton. But I really think that there's an opportunity for Evan Ingram to be right up near the top of Courtland Sutton's kind of alpha spot there on that offense that we saw last year. Evan Ingram could really challenge him for target lead at some point this season, especially if Courtland Sutton is losing targets to Evan Ingram and other guys as well. Hunter Henry. I like Hunter Henry. I think he could end up being a decent bet at the tight end position this year, but it's all about Drake May and how often we look at Hunter Henry. For me, Hunter Henry's path to tight end one status is going to be in the red zone. That's where he's going to need to be utilized more often. And then Kyle Pitts, like I said, for Kyle Pitts, I'll let him break out somewhere else. I have no interest in owning him. For the tier four guys, Mike is right here on the edge of tier four, tier three. The numbers don't look great, but his usage toward the ends of the season was very encouraging. And that's why I feel like that he's the guy here to take the biggest jump. But a guy like Kate, I don't see him taking a jump. You add in a Mecca Ibuka and you're getting Chris Godwin back, Kateton's going to be forgot about. He's going to have a game where he scores a couple of touchdowns and people are going to freak out over adding him and he's not going to do anything the rest of the way. They're going to need two injuries at the wide receiver position at least for Kate Hotton to have fantasy viability. Jake Ferguson I do think could take a jump because that offense there in Dallas could end up being improved this season. Dak Prescott fully healthy. Is he going to be the number two target behind CD Lamb or the number three target behind Lamb and George Pickins? Britain Strange was set to be a huge breakout candidate at the tight end position until they drafted Travis Hunter. Now Britain Strange looks to be the number three target behind Brian Thomas Jr. and Hunter himself. But you have to wonder, a guy like Travis ETN, if he stays on the roster, isn't traded, isn't released, how much work does he get in the passing game, does that hurt Britain Strange as well? Dalton Concaid is coming in is coming out as Kyle Pittz 2.0 at this point. A receiving threat that was drafted probably higher than he should have been and was basically formulated into becoming this hybrid type of wide receiver when he should have just played tight end. He hasn't really been able to do much since he was drafted and he's really becoming Kyle Pittz where each year he's in an offense where we feel like he can succeed, where we feel like he can be one of the main targets and then he either just doesn't get consistent enough targets or he just doesn't perform well. Uh Daltton King, he could take a step into tier three, but I'm not really willing to really bank on him until I start to see more consistent production as well. Isaiah likely will be a trap until Mark Andrews retires because he's going to, like week one last year, have a huge week. Fantasy owners are going to get super invested in him. They're going to forget about Mark Andrews and then Mark Andrews will be the guy the rest of the year. So, when I take a look at Isaiah likely, he's going to have some really, really big games, but he's also going to disappear. He might be the most inconsistent tight end that gets overdrafted. And then Tyler Warren, Coulson Lovelin, Mason Taylor. Let's take a look at where their ADPs are right now compared to the rest of these players since they don't have a score. The first four tight ends in terms of ADP I think are exactly what you would expect. Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and George KD. The fact that Brock Bowers is going so much higher, almost 20 spots higher than George KD absolutely blows my mind. George KD realistically should be ranked is the number one tight end this season. Trey McBride should be number two and then Brock Bower should be number three. I'm not hating on Brock Bowers. He is an elite player at a position that doesn't have many of them. But George KD has earned that tight end one ranking. And if anything, his opportunity looks better going into this season than it did last year. Right behind them, Sam Laaporta. No shock there. Then TJ Hawinson, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Evan Ingram, you could throw in David Njoku, those names are going to mix and match the rest of the way. Now, a guy like Tyler Warren going over David Njoku and Tucker Craft, the tight end position is risky, as we've talked about this entire video, and there's nothing about David Njoku and Tucker Craft that make you feel warm and fuzzy inside. So taking a risk on a guy like Tyler Warren who could become a real weapon in that offense, I don't think is necessarily the worst thing in the world, but you have to remember that rookie tight ends very rarely produce. For every Brock Bowers you have, you've got Dalton Concaid, right? That's how the tight end position has been for years. When you talk about rookie tight ends, Sam Laaporta, Brock Bowers, and Evan Ingram are really the only three over the course of an extended period of time who have come out and produced solid fantasy upside their very first season on a consistent basis. If you are risking it with a rookie tight end this season, I'm glad that people are doing it with Tyler Warren and not Colston Lovelin. I love Coloulston Love. I'm a Michigan fan. His autograph is on this jersey right here. I think he is a great NFL talent and I think he was a lot closer to Tyler Warren in terms of just overall skill set than what a lot of people gave him credit for. But here's the thing, you still have Cole Kat in Chicago. You have DJ Moore. You have Romo Dunay. You have DeAndre Swift. And yeah, by the way, they also drafted Luther Burden who that could end up becoming like their Jir Gibbs, their Amman Ross St. Brown, that type of guy that Ben Johnson utilized in Detroit for the last few years. So, there's going to be a lot of targets going all over the place. And we know that they're going to run 12 personnel. So, they're typically going to have two tight ends on the field a majority of the time. And as I'm here talking about this, I get an update from 49ers GM John Lynch about how Brandon Iay looks, which we've talked about when it's come to George KD. So, why don't we read this real quick? Breaking news in the middle of a video. Let's go ahead and see. 49ers GM John Lynch on Brandon Iayuk's recovery. We're not anywhere close to having a concrete timeline. Wide receiver Ricky Parasol is expected to be activated off the pup soon. And wide receiver Jawan Jennings is seeking a new contract. Once again, why I'm making a case for George KD to be the number one tight end drafted this season. And if you're drafting right now, I'm taking George KD over Trey McBride and Brock Bowers. Trey McBride is number two. And then obviously Brock Bowers is number three. Headliner Nation, what do you think about the current ADP? What player on here do you feel is being disrespected right now based on where they're being drafted? There is one tight end though that sneaks into the bottom of the ADP list here that I love for this season that is a sleeper candidate for me. You can check out that profile in our draft guide. Make sure you get yours ordered right now. Headliner Nation, do me a favor. Stay safe. Stay healthy. Maybe I should take some of my own advice. And I'll catch you all on the next episode of The Fantasy Headliners. [Music]