Bangladesh's Government and India's Regional Strategy

Aug 16, 2024

Lecture Notes: Unraveling of Bangladesh's Government and India's Position in the Region

Key Lessons:

  • Never ask a bride why she’s getting married.
  • Don’t wear a skirt on a windy day.
  • Dant is not a shower.
  • Don’t sniff chil flee.
  • Saving is not investing.

Overview

  • The lecture focuses on Bangladesh’s political situation and its spillover effects on India’s foreign policy in the region.
  • It is structured into seven key points:
    1. Four classical points.
    2. Two opinion pieces.
    3. Conclusion/reflection.

Current Situation in Bangladesh

  • Sheikh Hasina is currently at Hindon Air Base amidst speculation about her asylum.
  • Her regime is considered as having been established through a stolen election.
  • The political unraveling has implications for India’s eastern front, affecting relations with Bangladesh and Myanmar.

India’s Eastern Policy

  • East Policy Principle:
    • A sound relationship with neighboring countries is crucial for stability (20-25 years of policy).
  • Current Challenges:
    • Bangladesh: Regime change and potential instability.
    • Myanmar: Military rule is faltering.

Neighbors’ Positions

  1. Bangladesh:

    • Political regime collapse creates uncertainty.
    • India needs to find new allies.

  2. Myanmar:

    • Military government is losing control.
    • Uncertain future ahead.

  3. Nepal:

    • Political instability with frequent changes in leadership.
    • The new Prime Minister is hostile towards India, complicating relations.

Regional Dynamics

  • Hostile Neighbors:

    • Pakistan: Active hostility.
    • Bangladesh: Potential hostility post-regime change.

  • Ambivalent Neighbors:

    • Nepal & Maldives: Tense relationships, influenced by domestic politics.

  • Under Pressure:

    • Sri Lanka: Economically compromised due to Chinese debt.
    • Bhutan: Friendly but pressured by China.

Pakistan's Political Situation

  • The politics in Pakistan is more broken than in Bangladesh.
  • Army’s involvement in elections creates a credibility crisis.
  • There is a lack of ability to exploit India’s eastern challenges due to internal politics.

Global Power Dynamics

  • Contrasting Views:
    • India vs. US on Bangladesh:
      • US supports democratic forces, while India accepts the current regime.
  • China's Role:
    • Aligns with military governments in both Bangladesh and Myanmar.

Conclusion and Opinions

  • Importance of Stability:

    • India should desire a stable Bangladesh for mutual benefit.

  • Sovereign Nations' Rights:

    • External powers should acknowledge the autonomy of sovereign nations.

Recent Developments in Myanmar

  • Rebel Gains:

    • 75 towns and 2 airports controlled by rebels.
    • Significant military setbacks for the government.

  • Regional Implications:

    • Increased complexity in border conflicts due to ethnic ties.
    • China’s mediation efforts are self-serving.

Final Thoughts

  • The situation is precarious and evolving.
  • India must navigate these changes carefully while considering long-term relationships with neighboring countries.