are you sure here's the 30C lesson on what Legends know never ask a bride why she's getting married don't wear a skirt on a windy [Music] day dant is not a shower don't sniff chil flee and don't forget saving is not investing Legends don't just save they invest in mutual funds mutual fund Investments are subject to Market risks read old scheme related documents carefully [Music] we are staying with Bangladesh and also taking a slightly unconventional approach to this episode of cut the Clutter unconventional in the sense that we will talk in seven points of which four are sort of the classical cut the Clutter mode which is I pick up the pointers and try to simplify them for you two are opinion and one is in conclusion is more like a reflection so this is this is a 7po episode of kak L we are staying with Bangladesh in fact we are also going Beyond Bangladesh all the news that's happened you know shik Casina is still in Delhi I think plans are being made for her to go elsewhere looks like the Americans in any case the Americans want give her Asylum but it doesn't look like the UK government wants to give her Asylum so something will happen over the next 48 hours but right now she's at the hindon air base that said what this has done is the unraveling of her government her regime you can say because by this time this was a this was a stolen election so her regime but you cannot you cannot be judgmental about who rules another sovereign country that is something I will talk about a little bit more in slightly more detail then I come to those two points of opinion as we go along the unraveling of her regime in Bangladesh has completely exposed India's Eastern front for 20 years now in fact more than 20 years 25 years India has had a l e policy that L East policy needs to have the foundation of sound relationships to countries immediately to India's East that is Bangladesh and Myanmar the second condition is that both countries should have stability as we talk right now both countries are in a mess the regime in both countries in one country the regime has been defeated completely dismantled destroyed and we don't know what will come in in the other the regime is in trouble that is the my M Mar's military hun is in trouble once again India does not have friends there right now in Bangladesh India has to find new friends there will be a lot of commentary written see a couple of the articles that theep halder has written for us I will also share with you a link of the article that SI Raja moan has written in the Indian Express that's very good reading there are lessons here that when you're dealing with another country don't just don't just put it's it's an old old cliche putting all your eggs in eggs in one one basket but really there there is a cical aspect to diplomacy and that cynical aspect is a good part of diplomacy because nobody judges your diplomacy for being for for keeping Communication open on all sides trading of IUS from all sides etc etc some of those issues will pop up now as India looks at the situation to the east so look at India's East look at the map look at the map of India to the East India as Bangladesh where a friendly government or friendly regime is completely unraveled discredited the ruler has been exiled it is the worst possible Calamity it's our largest neighbor to the east then we have Myanmar I will talk about Myanmar in a little bit more detail as we go along but Myanmar completely unraveled now the military hun is losing control and we don't know what will happen there 6 months from now or maybe even 3 months from now and as the Reigns end then there is Nepal Nepal is a country with which we've had an up and down relationship in fact since the Modi government came in early on they made big strides in Nepal with Prime Minister Modi his first visit to Nepal he was hiled as a hero he drew big crowds and then the relationship collapsed you might remember that the spat with Nepal the early spat was over the treatment of madesis and political power for them and to some extent India got caught up in the internal politics of Nepal maybe under the presumption that India could play a bigger role there than probably there was space available for and India has been paying for it in terms of India NE Nepal relation since then so those relations soured so first of all our first point our first point Bangladesh has collapsed the regime has collapsed we don't know what will happen with the nation it's a big powerful Nation with a sizable military and a very large population very large mostly Islamic population but also with a large Hindu minority there Christian minority as well but Hindu minority which cuts into domestic politics in India and Myanmar The regime is looks like the clock is ticking for them that's our first point along with along with the tensions that we see with Nepal because in Nepal a new new prime minister has been sworn in every new prime minister in Nepal is the old prime minister because each one these are very very unstable governments they keep falling and and prime ministers are running a kind of musical chair so Mr oie has become Prime Minister for the third time in about 9 years now the second term he was really hostile to India he was so hostile that he changed the maps of Nepal he changed the maps of Nepal and he laid claims to these territories limp oara lipu Lake pass and also kalapani on the border with India in fact at the tri Junction of the border with India and China that's also the route one of the roots to manover so it's a very sensitive area where the Chinese have a stake he put that in Nepal's new map and had his Parliament endorsed that map when you put something like that in your Parliament you are you are guaranteed a unanimous approval so he created that mess the last time he was there now he's back in power so if you look at the East combined with Bangladesh Myanmar and Nepal I'm not saying Nepal is a hostile country I'm just saying that there are questions there and that is what exposes all of India's East and the Northeast now in a manner that nobody would have imagined 10 years earlier when the Modi government took over the second point the second point is if you look at all of India's neighborhood it is it is a perfect storm situation looks like everything that can go wrong has gone wrong how do you divide our neighbors how do we divide our neighbors we can divide them as number one hostile hostile Pakistan decidedly hostile Bangladesh under the new regime whatever ever comes up also in terms of public opinion street street opinion for quite some time will remain hostile it will it will need a very mature States manly leadership in Bangladesh or maybe really modern modernizing General who takes over we don't know who will take over or who runs the government drives the government from behind to change this mood if they want to once again convince the people of Bangladesh that India is a friend India is not an enemy and India is not out to out to play Big Brother with you until that happens I would put Bangladesh also after this unraveling in the Hostile category so Pakistan on the west Bangladesh on the east as hostile powers in our neighborhood the two largest neighbors that we have then you have neighbors who are either compromised or amb ambivalent and and with and who are tense with us so Nepal has a tense relationship with us Maldives has a very tense relationship with us because the new leader got elected there Mohammad muu on the India out slogan when when you are such a big country in a neighborhood Your Shadow becomes much too much too dominant for Every Other Nation particularly in its internal politics if you have a relationship of hostility with the country then forces in that country will use that hostility to drive up nationalist feelings if you are friendly with that country then other political forces can can use that close relationship as an example to build a story of domination Indian domination a domination of big brother so India always plays big time in the internal politics of every country particularly the countries with which it does not have regular hostile relations in fact if you look at the politics of Pakistan it's very it's very quaint that in Pakistani politics for the past 15 20 years India has hardly featured India's hardly featured even even Imran Khan when he came up with the slogan Modi kaj Jo y gar that was in his last election he did not get a majority he only got a majority he was that majority was rigged for him by the army so it doesn't work like this in Pakistan but all other na neighbors with whom India has good seasons and Bad seasons with Pakistan India does not have a good season with other neighbors India has good seasons and Bad seasons so in Good Seasons India's friendship is used as an example of big brotherly behavior in Bad seasons hostility with India or tension with India is an even bigger trigger for nationalist emotions that's what happens in India's neighborhood and that's the kind of neighborhood we have have so first of all hostile Pakistan and Bangladesh in that order Bangladesh I hope temporary but who knows Nepal T Maldives tense and hostile Nepal T I won't say hostile males tense and hosle tense and hostile right now to the extent that while Muhammad muu came to India for Prime Minister Modi swearing in a bilateral visit between the two countries has not yet taken place in fact Muhammad muu chose turkey a country a country that triggers India right it's almost like trolling India if if you choose turkey as your as your first foreign visit so turkey then China then to India for swearing G so I would say Maldives T and hostile Nepal TS not yet hostile let us see how this plays out and then we have and then we have neighbors who are under pressure so s Lanka is under pressure and compromis right so Under Pressure also I will create two categories Sri Lanka is under pressure and compromised under pressure from the Chinese and compromised because they have taken a lot of debt from the Chinese and they owe them that money and they and their economy has been in a mess under pressure I will say Bhutan Bhutan is not compromised Bhutan is not hostile Bhutan is very friendly with with India Bhutan would rather that no friction ever develops with India however bhutan's under intense pressure from China because the Chinese are a much bigger power they've laid claims to large territories in Bhutan I think many of these are just Namaste claims to say that we'll drop all the claims if you just let us have that little area around dolam Etc right you be reasonable do it my way and I'll be fine I'll be your best friend now the Chinese are offering Bhutan off in a a border agreement right it's not something that works for India so bhutan's under pressure at the same time Bhutan has its special relationship and affection with India and Bhutan is not Bhutan is not delusional about getting closer to China or in believing that getting closer to China will help it so it's not going to trade it's not going to trade a Chinese relationship with an Indian relationship then the third point the Third point is the bright spark in all this commotion to India's East to Bright spark in all this commotion to India's East is actually what's happening in Pakistan I'm not saying trouble in Pakistan is a wonderful thing successive Indian prime ministers have said formly that a stable and prosperous Pakistan growing Pakistan is India's larger National interest having said that the fact that Pakistan right now has complete completely broken politics Pakistan's politics in fact in some ways is more broken than Bangladesh is was because in Pakistan the Army stole an election they stole an election that's what happened in Bangladesh also the Army did not steal it shik Kina stole it in Pakistan the Army stole it for a bunch of parties that is that is Pakistan Muslim League Pakistan people's party and their Alliance the Pakistan Democratic Alliance in Pakistan as in Bangladesh the leading opposition party which might have in Pakistan in fact it was tipped to win the election in Bangladesh we don't even know if BNP was in that position probably it was but you can't be sure in Pakistan you could be sure and yet Imran Khan's PTI was barred from contesting elections in Bangladesh khalida Zia has been in jail in Pakistan Imran Khan and his key party people were also put in jail barred from contesting and yet in Pakistani elections people appearing as independent but everybody knew they were Imran Khan's people they won the seats which look like more seats than those of any other party so that is much more of a situation of with stolen mandate and the Army running the government from behind in a situation where the people don't trust it people don't accept it you can see it from many IND indicators the most popular leader is still Imran Khan in that situation with the Pakistani regime and this hybrid combination lacking credibility it doesn't look like the pakistanis today are in a position even if they wanted to take advantage of India's predicament to its East right now let me just say that they have problems of their own so let's leave it at that that is that is in strategic terms or in shortterm strategic terms a relief for India so let's call it a bright spark then point four point four is big Power Play The subcontinent has also always seen some big Power Play but at this point contradictions Have Become multiple and they criss cross each other in Bangladesh for example in Bangladesh and Myanmar India and the US have different view in Bangladesh the us would have wanted Democratic forces as they call them to succeed they did not see shik Hina as a legitimate ruler not only did India see shik Hina as a legitimate ruler but Indian election commission also gave a certificate of legitimacy to Bangladesh elections so that is the big difference between the Indian position in Bangladesh and American position so there is a there is tension between friends let's not call them allies let's say friends although again successive Indian prime ministers have said that this is this is a natural strategic Alliance or partnership that said the Chinese also play their games in Bangladesh as they play in all our neighborhood Bangladesh Navy only submarine for example is a kilo supplied by the Chinese and you want to see how this big Power stuff play plays out in our subcontinent the M Marin Navy also runs a kilo Russian made kilo some in fact a Soviet made kilo submarine from where have they got it not from China it's been gifted to them by India so this this play goes on in this region so in Myanmar as well the American power wants to support Democratic forces against the military hun they also have their own concerns about rohinga refugees India does not want any rohinga refugees coming in and does not want to give Refuge to any of them right it also cuts into our domestic politics second in Myanmar India's sympathies so far have been with status quo which means military hun rule there the Chinese are also generally on the side of the military hunas so once again the Allies have some tension between them between them and the adversaries India and China have some areas of convergence however things are changing there which I will talk about as I as we go along in Pakistan as we know China calls Pakistan its closest Ally and vice versa and yet the Americans are unwilling to give up on Pakistan it continues to be classified as a major non NATO Ally go to the NATO website you will find that entry there India is not there because India does not get into former alliances and the quad isn't a formal security Alliance so the Americans so the Americans are not giving a so the Americans are not giving up on Pakistan in fact as time passes chances are they might normalize more with Pakistan remember that while Pakistan stole this election at the same time that Bangladesh stole this election of the rulers in either country the Americans instead of blackballing Pakistan in Bangladesh they they announced sanctions on so many Bangladesh aami League officials Bangladesh Army of officials in Pakistan on the other hand they've gone out of their ways to patronize General aim munir who's been hosted in Washington and given time by by by the key players in Washington as well that that's where once again India's interest and America's there is tension between them there is no active contradiction there is tension between them but between India and China there the usual stuff is happening so the first two points we look East Third point point and fourth Point we've looked West Third Point meaning Pakistan has its own internal challenges so right now may not be able to exploit the situation to India's East very much and second the intensification of multiple big Power rivalries and contradictions in our immediate region so are four analytical points out of the way two points of opinion one we've seen much trolling of Bangladesh much trolling of Bangladesh to say are Baba you are saying that Bangladesh per capita income had gone ahead of India see what's happening there the country is burning this is not a situation where Indians this is opinion this is not a situation where we Indians should be indulging in sh and frud because with all its flaws Bangladesh was our closest friend in our neighborhood now you can't you can say oh Bangladesh somebody can say Bangladesh wasn't your closest friend Bangladeshi regime Hina regime was your closest friend but is that what we want to believe in India we should want to believe in India that Bangladesh was our best friend in in the neighborhood and shall continue to be so because governments come and governments go and that's why this expression of Shan frud about Bangladesh is not constructive that is not the way a bigger neighbor a bigger country with a larger stake in the world responds to a crisis like this in fact it's the best thing in India's interest the most important thing is in India's interest would be if Bangladesh settles down quickly there is peace on the streets and in The Villages and stability comes back and Sanity comes back on the street and the last point and again and again and the last point and again a point of opinion that Sovereign Nations have their own path so no other Nation should should think that I can direct another Sovereign nation's path think about the limitations of big poers so people might say that see Modi government claims to be so powerful but fail to influence the internal politics forget Nepal and Bangladesh but even in little maldiv when it comes to Sovereign Nations it's not a question of little or large Sovereign Nations particularly when they are democracies they have their own strength and ability to choose their own Direction you want to see the limitations of big Powers see how long have the Americans struggled with Venezuela even now with maduro's sto stolen election there Americans are complaining but they they can't do very much about this similarly see how the how the Sha of Iran fell in in America that was at the peak of American power and the peak of the Cold War and yet the Americans could do nothing about it the Takeover by the Taliban in Afghanistan these are the limitations that bigger Powers however big they might be have with have with Sovereign Nations and and that is something that needs to be accepted as we Gohan not like that a sovereign country is a sovereign country that said I told you earlier about what's happening in Myanmar before I let you go I will just give you a brief brief idea of how mixed up the situation is there 75 towns 75 towns in two airports are now in control of the Rebels the rebels have set up an alliance of their own it's quite a powerful Alliance it's very disparate it's called Myanmar National Democratic Alliance it's a military Alliance because all these Rebels have military groups they have taken 75 cities and towns and two airports and earlier this week they made their biggest gain and their biggest gain was the Takeover of a town called lashio lashio is about 200 km to the east of mandl 200 kilm to the east of manday as you go towards the unan province of China so it has China to its East and sort of laws to its Southeast right so this Cuts straight along the Chinese border lashio is a large town with a population of about a lakh and a half it's a large town by m Mar standards it's also one of the 14 it was one of the 14 Regional headquarters of of the M Mar military forces this military headquarters Regional headquarters has been taken over by the rebels who've taken 4,000 Burmy soldiers as prisoners including some senior officers some senior officers it seems have escaped to China as well read read about it in more detail in a New York Times story see the see the front page on your screens I'm sharing a link with you it's a story by Vi Shanker in the New York Times it's a it's a detailed story it also tells us of the game Chinese are playing there there's a quote from Jason Tower in this story nyt story Jason Tower from us Institute of Peace and I will also share a link of the entire article with you so you can read it in detail but I'm reading this quote from the nyt story by Vi Shanker it says and I think it's very succinct it it says Beijing is unconcerned about furthering a broader piece its so-called mediation effort centered only on manipulating a subset of characters in the conflict mind conflict in the conflict to protect Chinese Investments and weaken the military's influence that is M Mar militaries influence in the in the Strategic Borderlands and expand China's in fact A desperate bmes military hun or Mahar military hun I still have my old habits they've reached out to Russia seeking help so China is playing that game pretending to mediate between the rebels and the Hun so as to protect its own interests where does it leave India because India so far has not been very proactive India would have preferred if the Hun had prevailed but everyday indication seems to be that the Hun is weakening the clock is ticking and we don't know when something like what happened in Daka just now might happen there and remember that our borders with Myanmar are are most sensitive they are most complex to God particularly given the terrain and also common ethnicities on both sides common ethnicities kinship and bonding of the tribals on both sides that's going to be a big problem if that entire region is taken over by the rebels which almost seems to be the situation already so it is in that big picture that we look at India's East there might be little respite on the west maybe it's temporary but on the East you see trouble trouble trouble trouble in some places you write it with capital t as in as in Bangladesh and Myanmar in some places you you write it with a small te [Music] [Applause] [Music]